Thank you Mark! Just one comment though. The scientists on whose work I rely in this article argue that the models our brains create are literally the same as the cells that make up the brain. ‘Hardware and software’ are not distinct. An hypothesis which would also solve the hard problem of consciousness. Especially the theory of Jeff Hawkins explains this wonderfully. But it does mean we need to reconsider many of our current beliefs..
Q1) Did you look at alternative words for 'Indicate'?
Q2) In case of a "false" prediction (false is never black/white I assume), is the arrow going back immediately to Predict or is it continuing to Model and in that step adapts the model of reality based on the "delta" it calculated between the initial Predict and Indicate (Observe part inside Indicate)?
A1: yes I did look for other words, but indicate seemed most applicable. The word refers to indicator, which what needs to be observed or looked for.
A2: indeed, nothing is ever black or white. As you say, it is going back from Indicating the error to Predict AND simultaneous going to Model. This is nothing more than what we call learning. You find the error and adapt immediately (short term) and you don’t forget (ie. Model / Long term).
What I like about the 'predict' part is that it explains why it's so crucial to have a wide variety of experiences, otherwise you're always going to be slower compared to your opponent.
The “cognitive software” is one’s Orientation (the noun, not the verb or “phase”).
You can’t have the software without the hardware; and certainly the hardware needs to be maintained cared for.
I think cognition, Orientation, is the difference maker, not the brain.
Boyd in his own words, presenting “Patterns of Conflict” to Marine officers in Quantico (all emphasis and brackets/parentheses mine):
“So I can’t overemphasize it. Now I want to talk about one other thing before I hop into the presentation. One thing I want to point out, and I’m going to make it again and again. Terrain does not fight wars. Machines don’t fight wars. People do it and they use their MINDS (not brains). So you better understand the people, because if you don’t understand them, you ain’t going to make it, period. Now it doesn’t mean you don’t pay attention to terrain, you don’t pay attention to machines but: person, the human being, and the people are what counts. Top and foremost priority. The terrain is just the means through which you operate. The machines are just tools that you use. All they are. Of course, you can use them badly, or use them well. But the point is, that’s all it is. I want to drive that home. I’ll show you, when you make that mistake, when you begin to think that terrain [technology, hardware, medium, environment] is the most important thing, you’re going make some very serious mistakes.”**
Auftragstaktik is a function of cognition, that occurs in a brain. The opponent has a brain too. The difference is in the cognitive, the Orientation. That’s what shapes Observations, Decisions, Actions, Learning and Adapting (or not adapting).
Thank you Mark! Just one comment though. The scientists on whose work I rely in this article argue that the models our brains create are literally the same as the cells that make up the brain. ‘Hardware and software’ are not distinct. An hypothesis which would also solve the hard problem of consciousness. Especially the theory of Jeff Hawkins explains this wonderfully. But it does mean we need to reconsider many of our current beliefs..
Hi Remco, elegant way of modelling!
Q1) Did you look at alternative words for 'Indicate'?
Q2) In case of a "false" prediction (false is never black/white I assume), is the arrow going back immediately to Predict or is it continuing to Model and in that step adapts the model of reality based on the "delta" it calculated between the initial Predict and Indicate (Observe part inside Indicate)?
Thank you!
A1: yes I did look for other words, but indicate seemed most applicable. The word refers to indicator, which what needs to be observed or looked for.
A2: indeed, nothing is ever black or white. As you say, it is going back from Indicating the error to Predict AND simultaneous going to Model. This is nothing more than what we call learning. You find the error and adapt immediately (short term) and you don’t forget (ie. Model / Long term).
Sounds almost too easy doesn’t it?
What I like about the 'predict' part is that it explains why it's so crucial to have a wide variety of experiences, otherwise you're always going to be slower compared to your opponent.
Great article!
Is the hardware more important than the software?
The brain is the hardware.
Cognition is the software.
The “cognitive software” is one’s Orientation (the noun, not the verb or “phase”).
You can’t have the software without the hardware; and certainly the hardware needs to be maintained cared for.
I think cognition, Orientation, is the difference maker, not the brain.
Boyd in his own words, presenting “Patterns of Conflict” to Marine officers in Quantico (all emphasis and brackets/parentheses mine):
“So I can’t overemphasize it. Now I want to talk about one other thing before I hop into the presentation. One thing I want to point out, and I’m going to make it again and again. Terrain does not fight wars. Machines don’t fight wars. People do it and they use their MINDS (not brains). So you better understand the people, because if you don’t understand them, you ain’t going to make it, period. Now it doesn’t mean you don’t pay attention to terrain, you don’t pay attention to machines but: person, the human being, and the people are what counts. Top and foremost priority. The terrain is just the means through which you operate. The machines are just tools that you use. All they are. Of course, you can use them badly, or use them well. But the point is, that’s all it is. I want to drive that home. I’ll show you, when you make that mistake, when you begin to think that terrain [technology, hardware, medium, environment] is the most important thing, you’re going make some very serious mistakes.”**
Auftragstaktik is a function of cognition, that occurs in a brain. The opponent has a brain too. The difference is in the cognitive, the Orientation. That’s what shapes Observations, Decisions, Actions, Learning and Adapting (or not adapting).
** https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5497331ae4b0148a6141bd47/t/5af842f8758d4615555d3f6d/1526219514965/Patterns+of+Conflict+Transcript.pdf
Photo is from this article by @Brian “Ponch” Rivera
https://www.aglx.com/aglx-thinking/interaction-and-isolation-on-the-ooda-loop-the-free-energy-principle-and-the-dangers-of-a-polarized-political-environment